China’s economy grew by just 2.5% to 3% in 2025, the Rhodium Group think tank estimates, roughly half the pace implied by official data, driven by a collapse in fixed-asset investment in the $19 trillion economy over the second half of the year.
Policymakers are expected to announce that China met its full-year growth target of "around 5%" when top leaders gather in March for their annual parliamentary session and unveil the next five-year plan, touting robust exports in the face of a tariff war with the U.S. and weak domestic demand.
But there will be around half a trillion dollars in lost demand unaccounted for, according to a report released by Rhodium Group on Monday.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
If accurate, the shortfall could cloud Beijing’s ability to gauge how urgently it must act to avert a severe slowdown across the world’s second-largest economy, or assess its negotiating strength in talks with U.S. President Donald Trump to end a tariff war that has upended global supply chains.
In 2026, the Chinese economy is on course to grow between just 1% and 2.5% in 2026, Rhodium Group estimated, far below the IMF’s forecast for the year of 4.5%.
"China’s 2025 economic growth story turns on whether investment merely declined in the second half of the year or collapsed," the report said, citing an inconsistency in data showing a drop in fixed-asset investment but capital formulation seemingly still making a positive contribution to GDP.
Source : Investing.com