A eurozone inflation reading that’s likely to stay close to 2% should be enough to satisfy officials that they can avoid tweaking interest rates in December.
Consumer prices probably rose 2.1% in November from a year earlier, according to the median of 29 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey ahead of Tuesday’s release. The underlying measure, which strips out volatile elements such as energy, is seen remaining at 2.4%.
Such readings for the final inflation numbers before the European Central Bank’s Dec 18 decision might harden the resolve of policymakers to keep borrowing costs unchanged. That would leave them able to focus instead on their pivotal quarterly forecasts, featuring the first outlook stretching as far as 2028.
Officials find themselves in a holding pattern at present, with no clear consensus on what the next move for rates should be. Mixed signals from national reports on Friday might feed that sense of ambiguity, after stronger-than-expected inflation in Germany and Spain was balanced by weaker-than-anticipated numbers for France and Italy.
If there’s any bias within the Governing Council at present, it might be toward scouring the data for upward pressure on price growth. Vice-president Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg Television on Nov 26 that “the risk of undershooting is limited, in my view.” President Christine Lagarde, who’s repeatedly highlighted the good position that policy is currently at, may offer her own perspective in testimony to lawmakers in Brussels on Wednesday.
The unresolved sense of direction from the ECB is being mirrored by conflicting views from economists. Bloomberg Economics, for example, predicts inflation will slow in future months, adding to the case for rate cuts.
“Euro-area inflation will likely remain steady in November at just above the central bank’s 2% target, before resuming a sustained deceleration in December. That may add pressure on the ECB to ease policy next year, even though the Governing Council is currently resisting such a move,” said Bloomberg Economics.
BNP Paribas, in a recent note, offered a different take. “As we move into 2026, we expect the ECB to see stronger growth and inflation than it currently expects, which should further strengthen the case for a prolonged rate hold,” wrote Paul Hollingsworth, the bank’s head of developed markets economics. “We continue to see the next move as a hike.”
Elsewhere, the Paris-based OECD will release new forecasts on Tuesday, a consumer-price gauge is coming from the US, policymakers in the UK will share their financial-stability assessment, and Brazil may come to the end of its longest streak of growth in decades.
Below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
US and Canada
Federal Reserve officials will get a dated reading on their preferred inflation gauge before settling in the following week for their final policy meeting of the year. On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its September income and spending report — long delayed because of the government shutdown.
The figures will include the personal consumption expenditures price index and a core measure that excludes food and energy. Economists project a third-straight 0.2% increase in the core index. That would keep the year-over-year figure hovering just below 3%, a sign that inflationary pressures are stable, yet sticky and above the Fed’s goal.
Against such a backdrop, the debate among officials will largely centre on the job market and whether rates should be reduced for a third straight time when policymakers meet Dec 9-10. Investors see a cut as more likely than not.
While the latest jobs report showed a larger-than-expected rise in payrolls, the gain was concentrated in just a few industries. The unemployment rate ticked up to an almost four-year high, and there’s been a steady drumbeat of layoff news from companies.
Other economic data in the coming week include ADP private employment figures for November, as well as Institute for Supply Management surveys of manufacturers and service providers. The Fed is also scheduled to release September industrial production figures.
In Canada, meanwhile, jobs data for November are expected to show persistent weakness as the US trade war batters key industries and weighs on broader hiring. Some analysts see employers shedding staff after two strong reports made up for losses over the summer.
The Bank of Canada plans to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% as long as the economy and inflation evolve as expected, and it foresees a soft labour market with weak wage growth.
Asia
Asia steps into the first week of December with a packed calendar — led by a wave of manufacturing purchasing manager indexes along with price indicators that will help gauge the region’s momentum into year-end.
The tone will be shaped by remarks from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday, with markets alert to any signals on the likelihood of a December rate hike.
Australia begins the week with housing data that’s expected to confirm another month of gains, alongside a run of third-quarter figures — including company profits and inventories — ahead of its GDP release on Wednesday, when South Korea publishes its revised figures too.
Also on Monday, Japan issues a broad set of quarterly indicators, covering capital spending, sales, and profits, that will feed into GDP revisions the following week.
Indonesia reports inflation and trade data. A sweep of PMIs from across Asia — including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam — will offer an early reading on factory conditions as global demand remains uneven.
Tuesday brings New Zealand’s third-quarter terms of trade, followed by South Korea’s inflation for November. Australia reports its current account balance as well as government spending for the September quarter.
Thursday features Japan’s weekly portfolio-investment flows and Australia’s household-spending for October, together with the latest trade numbers.
Attention turns to India on Friday, where the country’s central bank is expected to lower the repurchase, or repo, rate, making borrowing cheaper for banks and in turn for households and businesses.
Also on Friday, South Korea releases current account data, Japan has household spending, while the Philippines and Taiwan report inflation readings for November. Singapore’s retail-sales report will show whether the improvement seen last quarter carried into October.
Source: theedgemalaysia